You may have already heard that carbon dioxide concentrations have surpassed 400 ppm. The most famous monitoring station, Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, reached this value on May 9th. Due to the seasonal cycle, CO2 levels began to decline almost immediately thereafter, but next year they will easily blow past 400 ppm. Of course, this […] [more]
Thoreau at High Clearing has been going on for some time about MOOCs and why he thinks they are a failing fad. He proposes a new buzzword, Hight-Touch Engagements, e.g. small classes, Online tools won’t go anywhere* (despite my bitching, I use a few of them to supplement my evil in-person class, I just don’t go around preaching that I’m saving the world with some new religion), but in a few years the fad will switch from sending everybody to college on their sofa with an LCD to some sort of opposite extreme. I predict, on the basis of zero evidence**, that the fad will be something like “High-Touch Engagement.” We’ll be told that traditional education has been predicated on a factory model, with faculty focusing on lectures and avoiding one-on-one mentoring and interaction, and we need to change this.At this point some of you are saying “That’s not true! A lot of faculty want a model of small classes, mentor… [more]
It has been a while since I’ve commented on much in the way of climate science and the denial movement. Although aware of the recent noise regarding the supposed “proof” of the unfounded “scare” regarding anthropogenic climate change, citing Otto et al (2013) or foaming bile in reply to the Cook et al (2013) study illustrating … Continue reading » [more]
The news from Oklahoma is heart-wrenching. Houses totally destroyed. Devastation. The dead and wounded, and the glassy-eyed survivors. Global climate change will cause more storms and stronger storms in the future, including tornadoe... [more]
So Cook et al1 confirms that there really is a consensus in climate science: 97% of the peer-reviewed literature over the last 20 years supports the fact that humans are responsible for the warming. It’s a solid result, confirming the earlier work of Oreskes and others, but its importance lies in the fact that public [...] [more]
10 Reasons Canada Needs to Rethink the Tar Sands A black mound of Canadian oil waste is rising over Detroit Ads aimed at U.S. lawmakers Could NAFTA force Keystone XL on United States? Is Canada’s tar sands oil too dirty for Europe? Keystone XL ... [more]
Last week I received an e-mail from commenter Terry Moran, also know as Twemoran or TerryM. In the past couple of weeks he has been working on a talk called The Demise of Arctic Sea Ice that he recently held for a small audience in Canada (here is the original... [more]
ABSTRACT: The observed rapid loss of thick, multi-year sea ice over the last seven years and September 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reduction of 49% relative to the 1979-2000 climatology are inconsistent with projections of a nearly sea ice free summer Arctic from model estimates of 2070 and beyond made just a few years ago. Three recent approaches to predictions in the scientific literature are: 1) extrapolation of sea ice volume data, 2) assuming several more rapid loss events such as 2007 and 2012, and 3) climate model projections. Time horizons for a nearly sea ice free summer for these three approaches are roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030 ± 10 yrs, and 2040 or later. Loss estimates from models are based on a subset of the most rapid ensemble members. It is not possible to clearly choose one approach over another as this depends on the relative weights given to data versus models. Observations and citations support the conclusion that most Global Climate Models results in … [more]
By Barton Paul Levenson10 April 2013 "There's been no global warming for fifteen years!" This is the latest cry of the global warming deniers. It's totally spurious, of course, because you need 30 years to show a climate trend, not 15. But just to pro... [more]
By Aaron Rupar 16 May 2013 (City Pages) – Rep. Glenn Gruenhagen, R-Glencoe, is anti-gay and gets his "facts" from materials distributed at the Conservative Political Action Conference. Other than that, we're sure he's exactly the sort of elected leader Minnesota needs. During a recent rant on the House floor, Gruenhagen characterized climate change as "just a complete United Nations fraud and lie" and "utter nonsense." He went on to suggest there isn't any environmental problem the free hand of the unfettered capitalist marketplace isn't capable of solving on its own. Here's a transcript of part of Gruenhagen's speech, followed by the raw video: Ultimately the underlying philosophy that supports all this is the so-called man-made global warming or climate change theory. And the fact is, members, there's more and more evidence coming in that it's just a complete United Nations fraud and lie, okay? The latest facts from CPAC show that in the last 16 years, there's … [more]
By Wang Wen and Zheng Xin 18 May 2013 (China Daily) – A senior official from the Civil Aviation Administration of China said on Friday that the country disapproved and "will not accept any unilateral and compulsory market measures", after the European Union threatened Chinese carriers with fines for non-compliance with its Emissions Trading System, or ETS. Speaking at the 2013 China Civil Aviation Development Forum in Beijing, Yan Mingchi, deputy director-general of the policy, law and regulation department under the CAAC, said that "airlines in developing countries should be provided with financial and technological support in their efforts at coping with the effects of climate change". He added that a balance must be maintained between the development of the international aviation industry and emission reduction targets. Eight Chinese and two Indian airlines are facing possible fines for not paying for their emissions during flights within the EU, the European Co… [more]
GENEVA, 13 MAY 2013 (IDMC) – A new report released today by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reveals that 32.4 million people were forced to flee their homes in 2012 by disasters such as floods, storms, and earthquakes. While Asia and west and central Africa bore the brunt, 1.3 million were displaced in rich countries, with the USA particularly affected. 98% of all displacement in 2012 was related to climate- and weather-related events, with flood disasters in India and Nigeria accounting for 41% of global displacement in 2012. In India, monsoon floods displaced 6.9 million, and in Nigeria 6.1 million people were newly displaced. While over the past five years 81% of global displacement has occurred in Asia, in 2012 Africa had a record high for the region of 8.2 million people newly displaced, over four times more than in any of the previous four years. “In countries already facing the effects of conflict and food insecurity … [more]
Last week I linked to Coral Davenport’s notable article in National Journal, “The Coming GOP Civil War on Climate Change”. I still think it’s a significant indicator that we are nearing a turning point on climate science for the Republican party. Rob Sisson, President of ConservAmerica, an organization of Environmentally minded conservatives, agrees that the […] [more]
They said it couldn’t happen. They keep trying to trash the EnergieWende – Germany’s planet-leading transformation to renewable energy. But the pesky Germans keep perking along. Wall Street Journal: FRANKFURT–Germany exported more electricity than it imported for the seventh consecutive year in 2012, despite an accelerated exit from nuclear-power generation that included the immediate and […] [more]
Over the ridge south from Stave Glacier is a 1.5 km long unnamed glacier, that is on the west flank of Galaxy Peak, hence referred to here as Galaxy Glacier. The glacier is in Garibaldi Provinical Park, British Columbia. Koch et al (2009) in their detailed survey of glaciers in the park chronicled the Park’s […] [more]
I’m declaring the tornado drought officially over. Monday’s horrifying events in Oklahoma are still being sorted out. Standard disclaimers apply, “No particular weather event …” etc I have a statement from Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the Natonal Center for Atmospheric Research by email: Of course tornadoes are very much a weather phenomenon. They come from certain thunderstorms, […] [more]
By Allen G. Breed, with additional contributions by Martha Waggoner in Raleigh, N.C. 18 May 2013 CAMP LEJEUNE, North Carolina (AP) – Ron Poirier couldn't escape the feeling that his cancer was somehow a punishment. As a young Marine electronics technician at Camp Lejeune in the mid-1970s, the Massachusetts man figured he'd dumped hundreds of gallons of toxic solvents onto the ground. It would be decades before he realized that he had unknowingly contributed to the worst drinking water contamination in the country's history — and, perhaps, to his own premature death. "It's just a terrible thing," the 58-year-old veteran told The Associated Press shortly before succumbing to esophageal cancer at a Cape Cod nursing facility on May 3. "Once I found out, it's like, 'God! I added to the contamination.'" The cancer that killed Poirier is one of more than a dozen diseases and conditions with recognized links to a toxic soup brewing beneath the sprawling coastal bas… [more]
By Suzi Parker13 May 2013 (Take Part) – Summer break has started very early for kids in one Michigan school district. Buena Vista schools have been closed for five days already, and on Monday, the district's website stated that the school would be closed until further notice. For good reason, this decision has parents, and the community, up in arms. The problem in Buena Vista is that the school district, educating approximately 450 kids, is out of money. All the teachers have been laid off and a financial emergency has been declared. The district has suffered from declining enrollment, which, in turn, has led to a loss of $3 million in state funding since 2010. In an effort to keep schools open, teachers said they would work without pay. This is not possible under Michigan law so educators have been left in limbo. To make matters worse, the staff has also lost their health insurance. […] The Buena Vista School District isn't the only district in Michigan&m… [more]
Ethon came flying in the window with a missive from John Cook. Based on the cross-tabs from the prequel survey, the bunny wondered what the distribution of No Position ratings from the abstracts would be in Cook et al based on the responses of&nb... [more]
Above is the best name I've got for the fallacy I keep seeing in many contexts. Somebody else should come up with a better name.There are some good arguments against expanding nuclear power as a solution to climate change (economics economics economics), but saying we shouldn't do it because by itself it won't solve the entire problem isn't a good argument. I've also seen it locally when some people argued that funding to remove barriers to fish passage is useless when it removes 90% of the barriers on a stream but not 100% of the barriers.There's some inability to see one effort as part of a broader effort instead of being the magic solution. Maybe the name is "You're Not the One, So Go Away Fallacy"? "Magic Solution or Bust Fallacy"?The latest manifestation of this is Dan Kahan, who should know better, and his unhappiness over/despite the spate of publicity for the Cook et al. survey of climate abstracts (see Kloor for the same but there's little hope for him). Eli's been blogging ab… [more]
By MICHAEL WINES 19 May 2013 HASKELL COUNTY, Kansas (The New York Times) – Forty-nine years ago, Ashley Yost’s grandfather sank a well deep into a half-mile square of rich Kansas farmland. He struck an artery of water so prodigious that he could pump 1,600 gallons to the surface every minute. Last year, Mr. Yost was coaxing just 300 gallons from the earth, and pumping up sand in order to do it. By harvest time, the grit had robbed him of $20,000 worth of pumps and any hope of returning to the bumper harvests of years past. “That’s prime land,” he said not long ago, gesturing from his pickup at the stubby remains of last year’s crop. “I’ve raised 294 bushels of corn an acre there before, with water and the Lord’s help.” Now, he said, “it’s over.” The land, known as Section 35, sits atop the High Plains Aquifer, a waterlogged jumble of sand, clay and gravel that begins beneath Wyoming and So… [more]
Despite last week’s lethal tornado in Texas, and the continued rash of storms today – the first part of May saw an unusually low number of tornadoes, – striking in contrast to 2 years ago, when in 2011 we saw an awesome eruption of tornado fury across the US. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground addresses […] [more]
Among the big lies that windbaggers like to spread about wind energy, there are 2 that come up a lot. One is that wind turbines kill a lot of birds, relative to other human activities. The other is that windbaggers give a damn about birds. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority: There are […] [more]
By Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent 19 May 2013 (The Guardian) – Some of the most extreme predictions of global warming are unlikely to materialise, new scientific research has suggested, but the world is still likely to be in for a temperature rise of double that regarded as safe. The researchers said warming was most likely to reach about 4C above pre-industrial levels if the past decade's readings were taken into account. That would still lead to catastrophe across large swaths of the Earth, causing droughts, storms, floods, and heatwaves, and drastic effects on agricultural productivity leading to secondary effects such as mass migration. Some climate change sceptics have suggested that because the highest global average temperature yet recorded was in 1998 climate change has stalled. The new study, which is published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows a much longer "pause" would be needed to suggest that the world was not warming rapidly. Alexa… [more]
Logging the Onset of The Bottleneck Years This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week’s Global Warming news roundup skip to bottom May 19, 2013 Chuckles, COP19+, Arctic Council, Consensus, Warren 400 ppmv, Ventus Project, Red List, Bottom Line, Cook Fukushima: Note, News… [more]
By Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent 19 May 2013 (The Guardian) – New York city could experience up to 22% more deaths from extreme summertime heat in the coming decade under global warming, according to a study of the impact of climate trends. The higher deaths will be partially offset by a reduction in deaths due to the milder winters predicted in Manhattan. Overall, however, the net effect of the new temperature norms under climate change would be to increase weather-related deaths in New York city by up to 6.2% a year by the 2020s, according to the scientists. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, predicted oppressive summer temperatures would exact an increasingly heavy toll on people living in metropolitan areas such as Manhattan in the coming decades. The numbers would not be significantly offset by milder winters, the study found, and deaths due to extreme temperatures would rise more dramatically in the later decades of this cen… [more]
In the climate plotter a large amount of climate data could be plotted on an adjustable scale. There were bars on which you could click to move and expand the graph vertically and horizontally. Curves with different units could be moved independently. ... [more]
After this, it seems to me that the human race has realised its ultimate potential; no further progress is possible. We might as well all go back to bed. Some things I see, I think: yes, you’re doing that very well. But I understand what you’re doing, and I could, if not do it myself… [more]
Over the last few days, there has been intense interest in our consensus paper and The Consensus Project website. The fact that the paper has been reported widely in mainstream media across the world is an important step towards reducing the gaping cha... [more]
By Brian Merchant16 May 2013 (Motherboard) – It already ranks as one of the grimmest measurements ever taken. Climate scientists found that for the first time in approximately three million years, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 400 parts per million. The reason that figure was splashed across the front page of the New York Times—and why top White House advisors find it "truly frightening"—should be well understood by now. Carbon dioxide is a powerful greenhouse gas, and the more that accumulates in the atmosphere, the more sunlight it traps—and the more the globe warms. We've now added enough CO2 to the atmosphere to change the lives of every human on the planet. This isn't an exaggeration. An increasingly large portion of the CO2 clogging our atmosphere comes from human activity—from our coal-fired power plants, our petroleum burning cars, our factories. Before we had any of those, carbon dioxide accounted for jus… [more]