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Recent Articles

Hurricanes and carbon cuts

I was wanting to quickly comment on a recent Bjorn Lomborg article in the New York Post called No, global warming isn’t causing worse hurricanes. It’s mainly a response to another article in the New York Post called Climate change…

The time evolution of climate sensitivity

I wanted to just post this figure from a new paper by Philip Goodwin called On the time evolution of climate sensitivity and future warming. It uses a modified energy balance approach in which multiple climate feedbacks evolve independently over…

We Are Science

After a few days of presentations on (gasp!) science communication, a party was being held in Iceland. Many dignitaries, a few allocutions, among them one by a lady from the banking industry, more exactly a PR big boss from a…

Disasters and Climate Change

Roger Pielke Jr emailed me an advance copy of the 2nd edition of his book on Disasters and Climate Change. Roger’s email ended with I welcome your reactions, comments, critique. Past experience makes me slightly dubious, but I will take…

The ECS is probably above 2K.

I have quite a large conference starting tomorrow, so will probably be too busy to write. To keep things ticking over I thought I would post this seminar given by Andrew Dessler, discussing his recent work on constraining the Equilibrium…

You only need about 60 surface stations

Since surface temperature changes are correlated over distances of about 1000 km (it does depend somewhat on the latitude of the stations), it turns that you only need about 60 stations to produce a reasonable surface temperature dataset. I realise…

Some reflections

Since there are now 1000 posts on this blog, I thought I might write another with some reflections. We’re also about to go on holiday for a few days, the last before my daughter heads off to university, so there…

“Hothouse” Earth?

This is actually the 1000th post on this blog. I haven’t written them all, but have written many more than I had ever expected to write. I thought I might use this as an opportunity to write something about the…

Research should inform, not influence

Thomas Basbøll, who I sometimes have discussions with on Twitter, has a guest post on the LSE impact blog claiming that we need our scientists to build models that frame our policies, not to tell stories that shape them. If…

Estimating eta-Earth

I had a doctor’s appointment this afternoon, so thought I would work from home this morning and then planned to take the rest of the afternoon off to play golf with a colleague. However, I also played football earlier this…

Science might be political, but…..

Since everyone else is writing about science having always been political, I thought I would have a go too. I will admit that this episode has made me think more about this, and there are aspects that I still find…

On Questioning Authority

The discussion of the polysemy (multiple interpretations) of the assertion “science has always been political” has tested the mutual regard that exists between myself and “Willard”, but has not shaken it. I am pleased that we are still friends despite…

Science Has Always Been Political

The following tweet states a fact many historians of science attest: | ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄| Science has always been Political|___________| (__/) || (•ㅅ•) || /   づ#HistorianSignBunny — Dr. Audra J. Wolfe (@ColdWarScience) July 12, 2018 Scientists were not all pleased. Tweetstorms rained. One…

Scientists need to….

There was a recent article by Roger Highfield called Scientists need to ditch tribalism and stop shouting down outsiders. It was mostly an interesting interview with Hannah Fry who said I think that scientists and science supporters often close ranks…

The CO2 World Cup

Glen Peters found a nifty way to plug in CO2 emissions per person during the World Cup: Who has the lowest CO₂ emissions per person? France – Croatia (#FRACRO)#FRA – #CRO#WorldCup #CO2WorldCup https://t.co/aqjMTmv8EK pic.twitter.com/2VkmPLo7dr — Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) July 15,…

zero emissions

There’s a recent paper on carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris agreement (Holden et al. 2018). It considers two mitigation pathways, one that keeps end of century warming to below ~2oC, and the other that keeps end of century warming…

Rethinking climate policy

Roger Pielke Jr has been promoting his new paper in Issues in Science and Technology. The paper is called opening up the climate policy envelope and Roger has been suggesting that people should read it. I’ve read it a couple…

Climate misinformers

There’s been a rather lengthy debate on Twitter about Skeptical Science’s Climate Minsinformers page. The discussion involved, amongst others, Richard Betts, Peter Jacobs, Steven Mosher, Gavin Cawley, and – briefly – myself. Before I start, I should acknowledge an association…

S S Sagaing

I’m on the train back from a meeting in Leicester, so have a bit of free time to write a post. I thought I might write about something a bit different to my normal posts. My father contacted me a…

No, Hansen wasn’t wrong!

It’s 30 years since James Hansen testified before the US Congress about climate change. In the same year, he published a paper that produced some forecasts. I wasn’t going to write about this as there are a number of articles…

Planetary thinking

I was wanting to write a brief post about a recent Adam Frank article in the New York times called Earth Will Survive. We May Not. I also have a post about an earlier Adam Frank article, and I also…

low-probability, high-impact outcomes

Credit: Rowan T. Sutton (2018)There’s an interesting Earth System Dynamics Discussion paper presenting a a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WG1 to the assessment and communication of climate change risks. Essentially, one can estimate the risk of…

Airtime for policy experts

As I discussed in this post, there’s been a lengthy discussion on Twitter about climate scientists publicly discussing policy/solutions. In response to this, David Roberts tweeted the following: I think a) the over-reliance on climate scientists to do all the…

Science and Skepticism

oarobin posted a comment highlighting a video of a talk about Science and Skepticism by Steven Goodman. It essentially disusses the issue of reproducibility in science, and mentions some issues that I have myself. Ultimately, science is about unconvering “truth”.…

The #scicomm merry-go-round

Katharine Hayhoe has an article in Science about facts not being enough. It’s basically about how to effectively communicate to an audience that might have a tendency to reject the need to do something about climate change. As a result,…

Something about Tropical Cyclones

There’s an interesting Realclimate post discussing whether or not global warming makes tropical cyclones stronger. The basic answers is that we might expect the number of tropcical cyclones (TCs) to decrease overall, but see an increase in the frequency and…

Initial value problem vs boundary value problem

I haven’t actually looked at Judith Curry’s blog for a while, but popped across there and noticed a guest post about energy budgets, climate system domains, and internal variability. One reason why we think that we can actually do long-term…

The adults in the room

I was having another discussion on Twitter with Jean Goodwin, who posted the following quote. It’s attributed to Mark Largent and may have been delivered at a AAAS meeting. I’m interested in what other people think of this. I don’t…