attp

Recent Articles

Tortoise ThinkIn

I’m just back from a Tortoise ThinkIn. If you don’t know what that is, I didn’t either until this evening, and I’m still not sure I quite get it. According to this, it’s about building a different kind of newsroom.…

Moderation at The Conversation

The Conversation has a new set of moderation policies which is motivated by a desire to improve [their] climate change coverage. It involves a zero tolerance approach to moderating climate change deniers, and sceptics. Not only will their comments be…

Potentially habitable?

The exciting news in astronomy is the discovery of water in the atmosphere of a relatively small planet, known as K2-18b, that happens to lie in what we often to as the habitable zone of its parent star. The result…

Propagation of nonsense – part II

I thought I would look again at Pat Frank’s paper that we discussed in the previous post. Essentially Pat Frank argues that the surface temperature evolution under a change in forcing can be described as where is an enhancement factor…

Propagation of nonsense

A couple of years ago, I had a guest post about Pat Frank’s suggestion that the propagation of errors invalidate climate model projections.. The guest post was mainy highlighting a very nice video that Patrick Brown had produced so as…

Constraining unforced variability

Pages 2k has a new Nature paper called Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era. What they do is present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a…

Solar Radiation Management

Ray Pierrehumbert has a new article in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists called There is no plan B for dealing with the climate crisis. The focus of the article is the possible use of geo-engineering, specifically solar radiation management, to…

Statistical versus mathematical modelling

There’s a short comment by Andrea Saltelli in Nature Communications on Statistical versus Mathematical Modelling. The general premise is that, like statistics, there is also a crisis in mathematical modelling. However, there isn’t the same sense of crisis about mathematical…

AGW in One GIF

An image is said to be worth a thousand words. A GIF encapsulates many images. This one may not cover all ClimateBall players said, but I like it: Anthropogenic Global Warming Explained with a GIF https://t.co/HVCSk4zuvm— willard (@nevaudit) August 25,…

High emission scenarios

I thought I might briefly reflect, again, on the whole RCP8.5 discussion. In case anyone missed it, there has been a lengthy online discussion about RCP8.5, which is a concentration/forcing pathway that leads to a change in forcing of 8.5…

This. Is. Not. Science’s. Job.

My title is a paraphrase of something Michael Tobis said during the marathon Twitter discussion about RCP8.5, which I thought I would use to discuss something about science communication that I’ve mentioned a number of times before. During the RCP8.5…

A thin bench

A Nature Communications paper came out yesterday called Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians. It generates a list of what they call climate change contrarians and a list of climate change scientists and…

Sigh

There’s been a rather contentious Twitter thread about RCP8.5, a concentration/forcing pathway I’ve discussed before. It started with a claim that it was “bollox” followed by a suggestion that it was mainly used for generating headlines, scaring gullible folk and…

A little knowledge

There is apparently a paper from a couple of years ago that is currently doing the rounds and that argues that the Molar Mass Version of the Ideal Gas Law Points to a Very Low Climate Sensitivity. The suggestion is…

The Popper Ratio

I hereby propose the Popper Ratio – (n.) Unit obtained by calculating the number of “popper” in a long-form text compared to the number of times Sir Karl is really cited. By “really cited” I mean (a) a quote and…

Frank’s New Memo

Frank Luntz issued a new memo: Big thanks to Senator @BrianSchatz for inviting me to today’s ‘Conservatives for Climate Change’ hearing.The environment belongs to all of us. It’s time to put policy over politics, and work together to protect our…

Retract!

I’ve been on holiday for a week or so. While I’ve been away there’s been quite a lot of media coverage of the paper that I discussed in this post and that we discussed extensively in this pubpeer thread. It…

It’s dangerous!

There’s a recent Nature Climate Change article by Shinichiro Asayam, Rob Bellamy, Oliver Geden, Warren Pearce and Mick Hulme. It’s called Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous. The basic idea is that the rise in political rhetoric that sets…

Nature Scientific Reports

Michael Brown made me aware of a new paper in Nature Scientific Reports by Valentina Zharkova called Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale. Michael has, in the past, been critical of…

The Black Knight

I’ve been engaging in some discussions with people I shall politely call climate “skeptics”. It struck me that it’s a bit like the classic Black Knight scene from Monty Python. Start off being polite and complimentary. The resonse is unpleasant…

Vienna

I’m spending a couple of weeks in Vienna while attending a workshop on planet formation. Spent yesterday doing a bike tour, and wine tasting, in the Wachau Valley, and then spent today visiting some of the attractions in Vienna. The…

Rachel’s Bike

Rachel used to hang around with us at AT’s. She also moderated the blog for a while. She runs a blog in which she talks about her life in Scotland, with a focus on living a low-carbon life, especially biking…

Kooninisms

Gavin Schmidt has a Realclimate post about a recent talk given by Steve Koonin. Somewhat bizarrely, Koonin has a response to Gavin’s post that he has posted on WUWT. Given that Koonin has no climate expertise, presumably he thinks that…

Extreme weather event attribution

This is a joint post between myself and Eric Winsberg, Professor of Philosophy at the University of South Florida. Eric has just published, together with Naomi Oreskes and Elisabeth Lloyd, a paper called Severe Weather Event Attribution: Why values won’t…

Estragon and the Expert

An abstract stakeholder’s dialog. [V] You have cancer.[E] OK.[V] …[E] Is it curable.[V] Yes, I guess.[E] …[V] …[E] How[V] There’s A or B.[E] What would you suggest.[V] If you do A [inaudible], if you do B [inaudible].[E] Sure, but what…

A human extinction denier?

Mike Hulme has a new essay that some are promoting on Twitter. He suggests that he is a human extinction denier and objects to the climate emergency narrative. Although I have my own concerns about some of the extreme rhetoric,…

Promises and perils of the Paris agreement?

A few people were sharing, on Twitter, a Science article called Promises and Perils of the Paris Agreement. It mostly seemed unobjectionable. It discusses the linear relationship between warming and emissions, and how this allows one to define carbon budgets…

Models are failed hypotheses!

John Christy has written a report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation called climate models have been predicting too much warming. The basic conclusion of the report is that climate models predict far more warming in the tropical troposphere than…