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Recent Articles

Global Temperature in the Air Up There

I’m talking about the temperature in the atmosphere, and specifically the lower troposphere. The troposphere is where most of our weather happens, and for the lower troposphere we have temperature estimates inferred from satellites which measure “microwave brightness,” as well…

Global Warming: USA Voting Guide

If you think climate change is an important issue (like I do), and you’re wondering who to vote for in the upcoming U.S. election, who should get your vote? Which politicians should you vote against? The easy answer is: vote…

Global Warming: How Far to 1.5°C?

There’s been a lot of talk recently about limiting global warming to 1.5°C, mainly focused on two things: 1) how important it is, and 2) how difficult it will be. This raises an important question: how far have we come…

The Global Warming Signal

Many things affect global temperature, and the three best-known other than greenhouse-gases those are the el Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), atmospheric aerosols from volcanic eruptions, and variations in the sun. We can use historical data to estimate how strongly those…

Global Warming: 1.5°C or less?

One of the most valuable posts I’ve seen recently at RealClimate is this one about the new IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. The report has a lot to say that’s crucially important. The RealClimate report deals with only a bit…

Multiple Testing

Suppose I showed you a close-up, on a live video feed, of where my shot at a target landed. The video is zoomed in on the target’s bulls-eye, and lo and behold, right there is my shot. No doubt about…

Arctic Heating

News stories about the Arctic always seem to say either that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average, or that it’s warming nearly twice as fast as the global average. That’s not correct. Arctic warming is…

For Greta

I want to feel safe. When I walk home late at night. When I sit on the subway. When I sleep at night. But I don’t feel safe. How am I supposed to feel safe when I know that we…

Talk About It

From time to time I ask people a question to gauge how much they know about climate change: “What’s your best guess, how much has Earth’s average temperature changed since the year 1900? Since I live in the USA, the…

I am not a climate scientist

Reader “Deltaeus” expressed his frustration about many aspects of the “debate” about climate change, including the fact that there are shallow arguments all over the place. I’d like to respond to some of his comments. First let me say that…

New Prediction Paper

Some of my long-time readers have expressed an interest in a recent paper which attempts to predict how global temperature will change over the next few years, A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global…

Statistics: not for Cliff Mass

It all started with Cliff Mass saying “… with huge transient peaks and troughs (see below). With such variability …” when talking about CalFire data of area burned by wildfire in California from 1987 through 2016. His comment led me…

Questions for Cliff Mass

In response to my post, you said my analysis is “very weak” and that I used “an inappropriate statistical approach that did not consider the variability of the time series.” The Theil-Sen trend estimate is robust, in fact it’s what…

USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show? Let’s try yearly average temperature in the conterminous U.S., also known as the “lower 48 states” (I’ll just…

Twit-in-chief Tweets

We all know that Californians are suffering from terrible wildfires. Thousands of buildings have been destroyed. Many have lost their lives, including firefighters, including a great-grandmother who died with her great-grandchildren. It is a tragedy. So what did Donald Trump,…

California Wildfires

With the devastating wildfires terrorizing California, climate deniers are doing everything they can to try to persuade people that it’s no big deal, and even the big deals have nothing to do with man-made climate change. To believe them, you…