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Statistics: not for Cliff Mass

It all started with Cliff Mass saying “… with huge transient peaks and troughs (see below). With such variability …” when talking about CalFire data of area burned by wildfire in California from 1987 through 2016. His comment led me…

Questions for Cliff Mass

In response to my post, you said my analysis is “very weak” and that I used “an inappropriate statistical approach that did not consider the variability of the time series.” The Theil-Sen trend estimate is robust, in fact it’s what…

USA Temperature: can I sucker you?

Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show? Let’s try yearly average temperature in the conterminous U.S., also known as the “lower 48 states” (I’ll just…

Twit-in-chief Tweets

We all know that Californians are suffering from terrible wildfires. Thousands of buildings have been destroyed. Many have lost their lives, including firefighters, including a great-grandmother who died with her great-grandchildren. It is a tragedy. So what did Donald Trump,…

California Wildfires

With the devastating wildfires terrorizing California, climate deniers are doing everything they can to try to persuade people that it’s no big deal, and even the big deals have nothing to do with man-made climate change. To believe them, you…

Why use temperature Anomaly?

Some people ask “Why use temperature anomaly rather than just temperature?” because they are curious, maybe even confused about it, and want to learn. Some climate deniers claim that doing so is a mistake which invalidates trend analysis, in part…

Stupid Shit

Imagine every single report ever about the link between cigarette smoking and lung cancer, from the 1960s when the surgeon general’s report came out up to the present day, beginning with the statement that “No single case of lung cancer…

A Human-Caused Signal is Now Evident

Space.com has an interesting article about recent research by Santer et al. (2018, Science 361, 245) into how the seasonal cycle of temperature has changed. It’s a topic we’ve looked at recently for surface temperature in the USA. Santer et…

Global Warming: Let It Snow

With the oppressive heat striking across the world, I thought I might provide a little relief to readers plagued by high temperatures by discussing something they might welcome right about now: snow. Snow is crucially important in many regions because…

Heat Waves Gone Wild

This summer we haven’t just had heat waves, we’ve seen them plaguing vast areas around the northern hemisphere. Intense heat in Sweden sparked an epidemic of wildfires in their drought-stricken forests, so bad that they had to ask other nations…

Global Warming Naive

At a town hall meeting near Philadelphia, 18-year-old Rose Strauss had a question for Scott Wagner, the Republican candidate for governor of Pennsylvania: You’ve said that climate change is a result of people’s body heat, and are refusing to take…

Climate Change USA: Seasons

We’ve been looking at patterns of climate change in the conterminous USA (the “lower 48 states”) recently. Let’s see what’s been happening in the different seasons of the year. Specifically, let’s find out how temperature has been changing since 1985,…

Thank You

It’s easy to think the world is headed for disaster, and we can’t stop it. Ask those who suffered through the intense heat wave that hit California and the wildfires that came along with it. Ask those who removed a…

Global Warming: Kids Lead

In just two days, kids will be marching in Washington D.C. to urge our leaders to do more to fight against man-made climate change. I doubt the present leadership will listen. That doesn’t matter; what counts is that they are…

Global Warming USA: Patterns of Drought

A good measure of drought severity is the Palmer Drought Severity Index, also called simply “PDSI.” One thing to keep in mind is that negative numbers indicated drought, the more negative the more severe, while positive numbers indicate wet conditions.…

Spread the Word

I’d like to remind everyone that kids will be marching on Washington this Saturday, July 21st, to advocate for real action about climate change. Maybe the best thing you can donate to them is publicity. Got a facebook account? Post…

Global Temperature Update

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has published their data for global average temperature anomaly in June of this year. With June included, the latest data look like this: It’s not really a surprise; global temperature continues to fluctuate,…

Night and Day

I read an article yesterday about the impact of global warming of night-time temperatures. They are significant. The article also talked about night temperatures generally warming faster than daytime temperatures. That made me wonder … where and how is this…

Kids’ Climate March

Earther has an excellent article on the upcoming climate march on Washington D.C., organized by teenagers. The article also profiles one of the founders and leaders, Jamie Margolin. It states: “With renewable energy, we could create an amazing world,” Jamie…

Zero Hour

We talk about climate change, about how necessary it is to do something about it. That’s important, and I commend all of us who do. But there’s a group of kids who are going to march on Washington to press…